In the matter of the prediction of an earthquake China comes first. Many years back it was noted by the scientists or philosophers of China and Japan that there happens unusual changes in the behavior of some animals before an earthquake. For example rats, snakes, lizards and other reptiles suddenly comes out of their dwellings, besides some pet animals got confused and move erratically here and there. In addition to all that the changes take place in the total content of redone in the groundwater. Unusually high percentage of redone and water level rise or fall are some of the common changes. Sometimes temperature of the groundwater suddenly get increased. But question arises that whether the changes in the behavioral pattern of the animals can correctly and constantly monitored; and whether these methods are practically applicable or not? Therefore to predict an earthquake some scientific method need to be developed.

Today France, USA, Japan and Spain are major centers for earthquake study. In the USA especially in all the universities in California state this subject is thoroughly studied. The frequent earthquakes are the main cause behind the study. Japan also gets frequent earthquake almost everyday, but they are of lesser magnitude. However Japan is stroked by more than 5 magnitude quakes a couple of times in a calendar year. Due to the frequent earthquakes the people are become habituated and therefore their engineering structures are unimaginably earthquake proof. It reflects their high standard engineering skill. The skyscrapers are equipped with giant shock absorbers, therefore they are least affected by the earthquakes of six magnitude.

In spite of their wonderful engineering structures, every Japanese is aware of all first aid treatments and other precautions which have to be taken during the catastrophes like earthquake. Because of the earthquake awareness the casualties can be prevented by large numbers. The Himalayas and the Kachchh regions of India are grouped under the zone -5 of the possible earthquake regions. Zone five is considered as the most sensitive zone while number one is the least sensitive zone. Now we glance at some of the advanced researches for the prediction of an earthquake.

The conventional study of the earthquake includes mainly causes of origin, focus and its magnitude measured by the seismograph; while the prediction of the earthquake is not possible to made through the conventional seismograph or seismologist. Therefore now-a-days the prediction of an earthquake becomes a burning question. And this matter has become a challenge for the geologists. The branch separately developed in geology, which deals with the study of ancient/historical earthquakes is known as paleoseismology. Coordination of different discipline like structural geology, archeology, geophysics, advanced dating methods and global positioning system have been done in the study of paleoseismology. Now we shall discuss how the possible time and recurrence period can be found out with the various tools of paleoseismology.

We have instrumental data of the earthquake not more than 100 years old, while for the earthquakes older than 100 years we have to depend on oral records said by the aged persons, or the writings of other historical books. Such data are always doubtful, therefore history is useless when we want to know about the older earthquakes. The earthquakes of more than six magnitude generally make smaller changes in the landscapes; while due to the quakes of more than seven magnitude wavy structures/convolutions, sand pipes or liquefaction occur in the soft sediments of Quaternary period; Such structures are called seismites. The earthquake events of near future (last 0.1 million years) are entrapped into those soft sediments. The dating method like thermoluminiscence, E.M.R. (Electron Mass Resonance), carbon dating etc. are helpful in making the list of historical events. In such events the carbonic material from the seismites are extracted carefully and analyzed. By this method the recurrence period of an earthquake is made out and therefore when the future quakes possibly strike can also be known.

With the help of the study of geophysics one can know the layers of rocks, faults, folds and other small changes take place thousands of meter below the surface. Therefore geophysics is also an important tool in the study of paleoseismology. National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI), Hyderabad is connected with such kind of researches.

The study of the surface faults and the baking effect associated with them are also helpful in dating. The study of the morphological changes occurred due to the tectonic events is also important in earthquake prediction. The archeological sites are also one of the targets for paleoseismologists as the carbonic and feldspathic materials taken out are dated and the periods of past earthquakes are found out.

The movement of the lithospheric plates on the asthanosphere (plastic layer below 100 km)is a basic reason for the earthquake. The boundaries between the two plate are most sensitive to the earthquakes. If we know the rate of the plate motion and the changes take place in the layers below the surface, we can understand the possible future earthquakes. Special instruments are used in such kind of study. A national network has been prepared to study the strong motion accelerograph in the regions of Himalayas by Department of Science and Technology, Delhi. The radio navigation system like Global Positioning System (GPS) is extremely useful in strong motion study. The system works by the 24 NAVSTAR satellites of American Navy. They encircle the earth and at any time we have at least three satellites over our head, which send the signals and our GPS receivers can give us our exact position in longitudes and latitudes as well as the altitudes in meters. Plate motion can also be measured with minor accuracy. Today we have very small number of GPS stations, however pocket GPS meters are available in the market but they show some errors.

Therefore for the research of the earthquake forecast we rely more on the physical changes instead of the numerical calculations. Today scientists study the minor details regarding the ground level changes, release of redone gas and electrical changes into the earth before the earthquakes. Recently the seismologists are developing a model which measure the changes in the electrical property of the earth below 10 km before the major earthquake. Here 10km deep bore hole is made and an electrical rode is inserted, then the physical and electrical changes are measured with the sensitive instruments. This method is the most reliable to forecast an earthquake.

Paleoseismology has become an important subject in geology and it is developing as a separate scientific discipline. Some of the research fields of seismology are as follows.

• Modeling of the focus of an earthquake
• Wave motion and their characteristics
• Teleseismic and local tomography
• Study of the faults (Geological and geophysical)
• Modeling of the lithospheric and structural processes
• Paleoseismology and active tectonics
• Zone modeling of the tectonic forces, dynamic deformations and tensional states
• Causes and effects of the processes of the artificial earthquakes
• Study of the ground motion and ground failure
• Study of different engineering structures after the earthquake
• Database of the GPS system made for the earthquakes

The aim behind all above researches is to know the time, place, intensity and probability of an earthquake. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has established 58 national level seismological observatories to study the earthquakes. Out of them 20 are a kind of GSN (Global Seismic Network) while the others are digital observatories and Teleseismic networks.

Bhuj has a GSN observatory. The institutes associated with the earthquake study in India are as follows: IMD, SOI (Survey of India), BARC (Bhabha Atomic Research Center), NGRI, IIG (Indian Institute of Geomagnetism), WIHG (Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology), CBRI (Central Building Research Institute), CESS (Center for Earthscience Studies-Trivendrum) and other universities.

Adipur, Dt. 10, Intellectual's forum of Adipur has invited a lecturer from Bhuj to deliver a lecture on the subject of Earthquakes in Kachchh. He suggested that from 1668 to 1999 Kachchh has experienced 92 earthquakes. Dr. Mahesh Thakkar of the department of Geology, Shri R.R.Lalan College, Bhuj has revealed excellent information about how the earthquake occurs when there happens changes in the internal layers of the earth. He also suggested that geographical changes are the results of the earthquakes and they seriously affect the landscapes. We have to be very cautious because Kachchh is on a seismic belt.

in addition to that he also said that the interior of the earth can also be known with the help of an earthquake. The earthquake reveals the truth about the various vital processes active below the surface. In fact the movement of these plates are necessary, therefore the earthquakes are necessary, he said. He also informed about various past earthquakes of Kachchh. He continued that due to an earthquake Allahbund came into existence in the Rann of Kachchh, and Indus channel called Nara diverted and formerly fertile western Kachchh became the barren land. Japan has very advanced engineering structures that can withstand 7.5 magnitude earthquake. He also gave the information about the earthquake occurred at Roha and Anjar in Kachchh. Dr. Thakkar also warned that if we can't put control on the mushrooming multistory buildings, the people of Bhuj are definitely going to suffer.

Dr.Mahesh Thakkar has done postgraduation from M.S.university of Baroda. The title of his earthquake related Ph.D. thesis is "Morphotectonic evolution of Khari River Basin of Central Kachchh Highland.